I just read this on another car forum I go to...
Saturday, October 18, 2008
GM-Chrysler talks advance
Cerberus pushes for quick deal; Financial crisis ramps up pressure to join forces
Christine Tierney, David Shepardson and Alisa Priddle / The Detroit News
Cerberus Capital Management LP founder Stephen Feinberg, a driving force behind the negotiations to combine General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, is pushing for a rapid deal before both automakers are weakened further in this treacherous environment, say sources familiar with the situation.
GM President Frederick Henderson and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz also want to conclude an agreement quickly, the sources said. Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner is said to subscribe to the logic of such a deal but seems more guarded about the prospect of putting together two money-losing automakers facing similar challenges, the sources said. Some GM directors share those concerns.
The parties met Friday, but Feinberg was not directly involved with the talks. The negotiations have been complicated by the disclosure last week that they were taking place even though they were at a preliminary stage. But officials on both sides want to conclude a deal quickly -- preferably before the presidential election on Nov. 4, when candidates might be more amenable to requests for help.
Cerberus and GM declined to comment.
Under one scenario being discussed, GM would absorb Chrysler and draw on its cash hoard -- $11.7 billion on June 30 -- to wind down some of its businesses, brands and dealerships to slash costs.
The other potential suitor for Chrysler, the Renault-Nissan alliance, is weighing whether to continue negotiations in this tricky financial climate.
Feinberg is said by people close to the talks to favor a deal with GM as a solution to the U.S. auto industry's mounting difficulties.
Detroit's automakers are losing money and their market value has shrunk dramatically. According to the assessment of major banks, the U.S. automakers are not able to invest sufficiently in future products and technology to remain competitive, and they cannot obtain credit in this climate.
Their dire situation poses a problem for major banks, including Bank of America, Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, whose combined exposure to the industry runs into the tens of billions of dollars, said one source close to the situation.
The automakers' weakness also has reduced the value of Cerberus' automotive holdings, including Chrysler, acquired last year from Daimler AG for $7.2 billion, most of which was injected into Chrysler.
"It's a way for Cerberus to get out before it all blows up," said Joe Phillippi, president of AutoTrends Consulting Inc. in Short Hills, N.J.
"When Cerberus put this deal together, they felt this would be a medium-term holding" of five to seven years, he said.
"When they were doing their scenarios, I'm sure they never anticipated the industry would go from 17 million to 13 million or less (annual U.S. sales) in a very few short years, while they're still trying to right-size the industry."
After obtaining $23 billion in credit lines and loans in 2006, Ford Motor Co. is considered the best equipped to withstand a prolonged recession and a weak auto market. However, GM and Chrysler are viewed as more vulnerable in this downturn, with bankers assessing that the risk of bankruptcy may not be high but it is "meaningful," according to the source.
Sources close to the situation stress that many possibilities are being explored.
Feinberg's view, according to people familiar with the situation, is that GM and Chrysler should pair up before they are irreversibly weakened.
GM, which lost $18.8 billion in the first half of this year, is burning through at least $1 billion a month, analysts estimate.
It had access to about $21 billion cash and $5 billion in available credit at the end of June, and is in the midst of cutting $10 billion in costs by the end of 2009 and raising $5 billion through asset sales and borrowing. But analysts say it may run short of cash as the industry environment worsens.
Investment firm Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. auto sales will slide next year to 13 million cars and trucks from 13.8 million this year. In a note issued Friday, Goldman said it expected the market to recover only to 14 million units in 2010 -- compared with 16.1 million last year.
"We think lower affordability will materially impact auto sales," analyst Patrick Archambault wrote in the report. "Our base-case estimate is for a reduction in 'trend demand' to an average of 14 million units over the next several years versus our previous estimate of 16 million."
While union leaders have spoken out against a GM-Chrysler deal that could ravage Chrysler, industry insiders say some union and management officials consider that a deal, while painful, may spare the industry worse pain.
"The most brutal thing is companies going down," said David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor. "What the union has to have more than anything is sustainable, profitable employers."
A source familiar with the situation said some reports had overstated the GM board's reservations to a Chrysler deal.
Cerberus, meanwhile, is interested in obtaining the remainder of GMAC Financial Services after having bought 51 percent from GM in 2006. GMAC is hoping to benefit from the government's purchase of bad loans from financial institutions.
Part of the pressure on Cerberus comes from investment banks, which were "very comfortable with Cerberus running GMAC, but uncomfortable with Cerberus being in the auto business."